Unfortunately, last week Manchester City finally decided to turn up and play some football. They beat Bournemouth with ease and our pick was lost. It happens and there’s nothing much to say about the game, so let’s move on.
This Week’s Pick: Liverpool – Stoke City
Ever since the arrival of Jurgen Klopp, Liverpool have been showing both good and bad signs. They’ve been impressive in certain games, but lack quality and some positions which made them inconsistent.
The direct result is that the team is out of the fight for top four in the EPL, but they are doing well in Europe. They’ve reached the quarter-finals in the Europa League and got a good 1:1 from Borussia Dortmund on Thursday night. This is their only remaining chance of a trophy and Champions League qualification and I expect them to put everything there.
If you combine that with their shaky home form, I think we’re onto something. Here’s a list of some of their results at home in the past few months: 2:2 against Sunderland, 2:2 against WBA, 1:0 against Swansea, 1:2 against Crystal Palace. I’ve deliberately left Arsenal, Man City, Leicester and Man Utd out since Liverpool seem to play much better against stronger teams.
Stoke could hardly be described in that manner. They are a place above the Reds, actually, but have been equally inconsistent throughout the season. However, they are unbeaten 3 games away from home and more than capable of surprising anyone.
Considering that Liverpool should prioritise the Europa League, I expect them to be exhausted and slip at home in the EPL. Stoke +0.75 Asian Handicap (0.5 & 1.0) seems to be pretty tasty.
This means we win our full bet if Stoke draw or win. We lose half our stake if Liverpool win by one goal and we lose our full stake if Liverpool win by two or more.
Market: Stoke +0.75 Asian Handicap
Odds: 2.15 on Betfair
Rolling Sports P/L: £101 (+10.1 pts)